A Report on South Sudan & It’s Probable Effect on African-Balkanisation: A New Age of The African-Nationalism & The Race Towards Internal-Decolonisation.
BY: S. S. Salim. July 9th 2011.
Pdf-version much better and detailed:
SOUTH SUDAN INDEPENDENCE AND ITS CONTINENTAL-EFFECTS.
This report briefly examines how the independence of the Republic of South Sudan is without a doubt, and with greater probability, going to set unprecedented demands from the rest of the continental nationalists and secessionists groups. The last time such a phenomenon was experienced was during the pre-decolonialisation period that began just after the Second Great European Wars of 1940s.
However, one might at the same time argue rather than be of negative impact on the political and economic character of the continent, the new phenomenon, what I term as the African-Balkanisation, might be a blessing, literary for the region, since it might at last reconfigure the dangerous and chaotic boundaries left behind by the European Colonial Powers (hereafter, ECP).
In short, there are both positive aspects of what is to come after the South Sudanese Independence and also the fearful consequences of perhaps ushering a new lengthier period of more civil wars and chaos. These are two aspects of examination for this report.
The report is based on academic sources, few local in-depth personal experiences and also, speculative hypothetical discourse, based on the first two points.
A GEO-POLITICAL CASE-STUDIES:
I. Swahilis: Lets take, for example, the Swahili-Bantu of the Coastal Area of Kenya, who strongly believe, and once rose up unsuccessfully, and called for their independence (the majority of this region are Swahili Muslims, and believe they were ‘handed-over’ to the ‘Mainland Kenya’ rather as ‘trustees’ after the 1960s Independence, until they were ready to govern themselves, and strongly feel they are more sidelined out of politics, economics and wealth and so forth, areas which are dominated by the ”Mainland Ethnic Groups”, of Luos, Kikuyu, and others). The period and the events I am talking about of course, was the ‘age of IPK’ (Islamic Party of Kenya), first, perhaps, of the Moderate Islamists Party in the, local, and greater region.
II. Congo: Then there are the Congolese, and their many, many groups, with great historical rivalry and animosity. This region will continue to be the cause of continental instability, as the Balkans was for the Europeans.
III. Somalia: Others, for example, Somalia, which has already broken down into three parts; the Somali-Land, The Cut-throat Southern-Western-Borders and the surprise-you-are-still-alive Eastern Rich Coastal regions (of Mogadishu, Chismayu, Barawa, etc). What is the source of the problem for Somalia? If you ask this question without being white, no offense, you will probably get a 98% unanimous response, the western powers. Is the response true? I have to be inpartial but the reality is, probably, very much so. The west fear the emulation of the Somalian model of Islamists popularism, since especially during the previous successful victorious of the Islamic Courts/al-Shabab, in implementing an almost stable governing institutions and practises, with tacit popular support.
Is the western fear a reality or not? The arguments can be made for both. However, the west are losing sight in appreciating the truer character of Somalia crisis, it is not global, it is not unsolvable, nor critically dangerous to the regional and continental affairs, but rather it is, separable, confine-able and most importantly solvable. I will leave this here.
IV. Central Africa: Then, we come to the central Africa, namely, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, Central Republic and others, all, have lived, and still do so, with ”many nations within a Nation”. These have the potential of South African Model, meaning, a prosperous growth and successes in shorter period once divorced from the internal political mistrusts and crises.
V. The Western Sahara Region and the Mauritania focal points of American Sub-Saharan Anti-Extremism policy drive (the great game of, the new sort of espionage and subversion, the anthropologists-within!). From here, we vie onwards to the Arabian Nations of Africa:
1. Libya: we are watching the unfolding of events; the split of the state, perhaps?
2. Algeria: since the independence and the civil war, the country has been divided between the Francophiles of the North and Eastern regions, and the Salafists of the South and the western mountains.
3. Egypt: We might just again have the old Upper and Lower Egypts of the Pharaohs, as things are getting-on!
4. Tunisia: No threat of divisions, topographically illogical, and never throughout it’s contemporary near-history has she suffered such a fate unlike others (Highly Unlikely).
5. Morocco: (Hi M. From Recent Marrakech-Trip). Not a threat, very ‘feminine’ state (the most of the Arab Nations and People), and tend to look towards the house of the Mohammed, the national monarchy, as the UK looks to the House of the British Monarchy.
The South of the Continent: The only bombshell is, of course, Zimbabwe. If Mugabe should go, the country will join the rein of the southern prosperity (the region is the most successful on the continent).
I hope I have set out the argument, soundly, on why there might be an encouraged trends for a revived African Nationalism, as a result of the recent successes of the South Sudan, and perhaps, more to come, and not very long that of Eritrea, for example. At the same time, I have tried to set out the positive aspects of further advanced fragmentation of the continent as more positive in terms of stability, growth and prosperity.
The kettle has been boiling for some time and now hissing-sounds of warning, perhaps, can be heard by those with clear audio receptiveness capabilities. However, sounds of opportunity also can be heard, and one should never stop listening to both echoes.
Good Luck To The Continent.