Counting Down The Inevitable War:
The present Iranian Crisis reminds me of the old pre-world war I events, both dominated by stupidities (or what are known as the ‘hawkish’ parties) and perhaps more mirroring is the ‘Schlieffen Plan’ Effect (hereafter, SPE).
What does Schlieffen Plan Effect means?
SPE means operational war plans have been made and events seem to dictate how they are operationalised.
In short, as the Germans during WWI were tied to the Schlieffen Plan, based on rapid mobilisations on the western front, against a knock-out assault on France, before swinging to the eastern front against the ‘late-coming’ and mobilising ‘rag-tag’ of Russian armies, for a swift two-front wars victory. This was then, today, the ‘hawks’ of US (bird-fed by some paranoid constantly crying victimisation groups), seem to be not in control of events, rather events (and already made plans) are in control of the,–the most dangerous aspect of slide to war.
Iran and US comparison of Military Capabilities and the Coming War
Iran is unable to stand the assault of American forces, even the fraction of it. Though the Iranian forces can stand toe-to-toe against any other military forces in the world, not the Americans.
Why not the Americans?
Because wars are won before they even start. And the Iranian Government have no counter-strategy or strong-ties to it’s home population when it comes to be invaded by US. There will be no ‘People War’, meaning national insurgency, ressurections or resistance, whatever ones calls it. The society is highly divided and the invasion will probabaly be supported by many just like earlier conduct of Iraq War of 2003, minus muddling with aggressive approach after the defeat of Saddam forces. This time the Americans can get in, crush the forces, probably by just initiating the assaulkt the internal forces, main armies, will dissolve as the Baathist regime did.
This is one weakness for the ‘open autocratic’ systems of governance in the MIddle East, and across any part of the world, especially, when the governments and population have no love-love relations but hatred and mistrust of each other, constantly suppressing brutally one another, with violent ends, and further gap in trust; as Machiavelli teaches us, in these kind of states, the invading rulers will probably find greater part of the population welcoming his incursions and replacement of the old hated regimes.
In short, the Iranian Amred Forces can not with stand American assault, however, if American are seen to operate with some ‘crying-victimisation groups’ of the region, there will be some form of fierce resistance, and the war will drag into a fierce guerrilla warfare, with ample space and perfect topography for such type of warfare, Iran, like Afghanistan will see the final end of US mIlitary might, as she will be taxed to death.
The War Is Coming! What Iranians can do, is steal the torch under those gunnjing for her, and openly declares that she will fully cooperate with IAEA, and renounce complete production of civil and military nuclear programmes.
In the end, wars are won not by nuclear weapons, by united population, strong bonds of trust and loyalty between states, government, the armed forces and the population. This Iran is deficient of, and thus one way or another she will lose the coming war, if she does not change the strategy.