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Political (& Security) Risk Analysis: Discussing #Syria (Strategy & Effects of Post-Assad, for the Benefit of Mr. E)


First, I would like to thank the anonymous Mr. E who emailed me with this questions;

1. ”What about Syria?”
2. ”What Strategic Model should Syria develop at this present juncture?”
3. ”What will be the effect of a post-Assad Syria for the region, and the West?”

Let see.

1. On Syria: All The Road Lead to Damascus

This was the first things I remember of my parent’s political discussions, that the Middle East is Syria, as Palestine (and Arabia) is Greater Islam.

What this means, is simply that, Syria left as it is has the potential to balance out the chaos of the region, but if further efforts are incited by any parties, from within or outside to change the present status quo, it has the potential to destabilise the entire region.

A brief reminder on the historical origins of Islamic renaissance/unionists groups, for example Muslim Brotherhood, and even Al-Qaeda, Syria was one of the founding states of these movements, with greater majority of these groups and supporters within, who have been suppressed for decades, as in Iraq, and Egypt by the old Baathists Pan-Arabian Secularists Parties (which still survives in Syria, and many key al-qaida leadership are from either Egypt or Syria, with middle management from Jordan or Saudi). Since the Iraq War of 2003, these forces have been able to manoeuvre with a bit of freedom but with still heavily placed limitations, especially, as the Syrian state refuses to support these groups, and provide further freedom of action or movement.

In short, Syria is an important strategic geopolitical state, with greater consequences for the region and beyond; hence, all the roads lead to Damascus.

2. On Syria Strategy

1. They need to get themselves out of the Arab League, rather than harming their interest with this act, it will actually harm the league further deteriorating support, which has already lost greater popularity from within the region and Greater Islamic Population; for the first time, viewed collectively, as stooges of the west. Syria should also make open a Syria-Iran Aggression Pact.

2. Rather than suppress the old-enemies, the Muslim Unionists (or Mujahidin, or whatever), it should encourage covertly and with immediacy for far beyond political tolerance (of offices residence, fundraising etc) to territorial freedoms to train, base and conduct operations from within. Most of the recent to-be-deposed regional leaders have refused to make this move (hoping to be on good side with the west with their proven loyalties to staying anti’al-qaida’ or ‘terrorism’ stances), to their own detrimental effects. By cuddling with these feared forces, the Syria government can utilise the western tactics of ‘black ops/false flags’, and conducted with her permission, these forces can go after the so-called ‘defectors and armed rebels’, as their interests will be now closely attached to the continuance existence of the Syrian Government of Assad.

These two strategic approaches are key to Syrian counter-crisis strategy.

3. The Effect of Syria, Post-Assad

I believe we have already looked at this, for example, further deteriorating middle eastern environment; from Iraq sectarian clashes, to Iran pro-active defensive measures, to the Arabian Peninsula effect, and beyond, with impact of the French, UK and US middle Eastern policies.

In short, Syria effect will not be close to Post-Iraq issues (increase armed Islamic groups, increased anti-western feelings; further regional instability etc) or a quagmire of Lebanon (in a politico-security limbo with some effect of ‘limited areas’ of the region), but rather will resemble, I seriously can not think of any past reference, since it has never happened in the region, hence, the seriousness of Syrian Crisis.

In short, Syria will rock, literally, the entire region with seismic tremors across the Islamic and the rest of the worlds.

Sorry, need to rush out, but I hope I have answered all the questions, Mr. E?

You might want to have a glance at this excellent (long) article from today’s The Atlantic on why US need to move out of the region:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/

Further Headlines:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/dec/23/weapons-procurement-decisions-private-sector

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/23/military-love-affair-dangerous

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-russia-lavrovtre7bm0ir-20111223,0,6024790.story

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2078238/The-Iranian-Schindler-How-thousands-Iranian-Jews-America-owe-lives-Paris-diplomat.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204336104577094500038099554.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/24/world/middleeast/iraqi-sunnis-and-shiites-clash-over-regional-power.html?hp

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/24/world/asia/pakistan-military-seeking-to-quash-rumors-denies-conspiracy-to-seize-power.html?hp

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-korea-north-collapse-idUSTRE7BM1B320111223

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/24/us-iran-navy-wargame-idUSTRE7BN03K20111224

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/217367.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/

http://rt.com/usa/news/ron-paul-mainstream-congressman-549/

http://rt.com/usa/news/pentagon-darpa-prodigal-email-537/

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,805639,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,805190,00.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/countrywides-racist-lending-practices-were-fueled-by-greed/250424/

http://www.economist.com/blogs/clausewitz/2011/12/america-and-pakistan

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About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications

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