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Africa, France New Militarism, Libya, Military Analysis, Political Analysis, Psychological Analysis, recommendations, security

On Libya: An Outline of A Winning Strategic Policy For The Libyan Opposition Against Gaddaffi


We have seen, and discussed in details, Gaddaffi’s regime, strategic advantages, moral superiority, local and regional support, and to the point of recommending the few controversial military options open to him on his drive towards the suppression of the local internal crisis, against the so-called ‘rebels’. Let me stop here, and tackle the ‘so-called rebel’ point, and later on recommend what I believe, in accordance to the peculiarities of the country and the many dynamics in relations, subjective cultural and historical viewpoints, and so forth, to be the only real winning strategy for the ‘real’ Libyan Oppositions against the Gaddaffi Rule.

1. The Character of The Libyan Rebellious Opposition:

I have always stated that, the make-up of this entity referred to as the local Libyan opposition, ‘the rebels’, whose origins can be traced to the city of Benghazi, is actually, one of their single most significant strategic weakness.

What do I mean by this?

I mean, we can not take the military operations from the political, again, and the political shape, or situation to use the military lingua, or estimate of Libya, is that, comprised not only of A Libyan in character, but also that of a symbolism of the region and the greater Africans’ anti-colonialism and imperialism feelings that is embedded deep within the mental and cultural threads.

Thus, any opposition in Libya, will be well-advised to distance itself from any external associations or entanglements with the ”suspected and well-known former colonists”, British, Italians and the French (or even the modern so-called ‘big Satan’, the Americans). This, the so-called ‘rebels’, (pardon my language) severely fucked-up from the beginning as they link themselves closely to these ‘negative players’ in the struggles within.

1.1. Hence, my argument, and connotation of the present opposition in Libya, as the ever ”so-called rebels”, as, I am not alone in viewing the entire enterprise as one big western conspiracy for domination of the strategic state as is Libya, based, correctly or not, on the historical relations between the western groups and the Libyan states affairs.

1.2. And through the ‘mission creeps’, the western forces/allies, have rather not extended a helping hand to these local oppositions, but alas, sought to justify the existing theories, conspiratorial or not, of the link between that of western new form of colonialism, the oil factor, the new scramble for Africa and the use, or abuse, as you might see fit, of the local oppositions as ‘proxies’ against their arch-enemy, Mr. Muammar Gaddaffi a la the Limited Wars on Cold War Era.

In short,

We can say that, this grand strategic (political and military) link between the ‘real opposition’ against Gaddaffi and the ‘new opposition’ with the western forces, is the sole weakness against any present or future oppositions seeking to oust Gaddaffi from power: Only Libyans, if they can stomach the brutal repressions, suppressions and other torturous means to be employed against them by Gaddaffi, can fight and morally win, real win in any of their internal struggles.

2. The Recommended Strategic Rethink:

1. The opposition, the real, not the western-supported, should openly request a complete withdrawal of the western support, even the aerial support.

This means that, they will be left bare to the wolves of Tripoli. However, it will hit the Gaddaffi regime with a forceful surprising effect, real unsettle him; what to think? what does it mean? Also, if they really have what it takes, and desire for freedom away from the tyrant, then it is a price worth paying, as many have done down the history. But with the lack of this, hence, my suspicious of the ‘so-called rebels’, is that they seek a silver-plated victory without a blood, toil or sweat, one presented to them by the western forces, and as we have argued, this will never solve the grand problem, and rather revert the old Gaddaffi forces into a new opposing side; the circle of violence will continues, ad infinitum.

2. The opposition, minus the western support. No western-mercenaries, or special forces, or advisors, etc, but only weapon support, will have to revert into a Guerrilla Warfare.

Through a protracted guerrilla warfare, the real opposition, made up of the actual local Libyans, will boost the national spirit for change, and will reduce in time Gaddaffi’s support base; as they experience his brutal wrath, many citizens will be angered, and will be encouraged to support the real rebels.

3. The opposition will have to accept long brutal struggle, with more acts of terror upon them, their families, bases and so forth.

But I will rather recommend it in the long time, the fruits of pains will be worth it.

4. The new external advisers should originate from within Islamic states, or the third countries, of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and I, myself, will be the first to volunteer to serve and to command them (not cheaply hahah).

But seriously, and to sum up:

Only by accepting and attempting resolutely to deal with these present contradictions, to use Mao and Marxists Guerrillas own terminology, can the real opposition in Libya amount to a real political change in the country, with a complete support from their own people, the greater region, the continent, and even from outside the region.

Recommendations:

Cut the ties with the western powers, ask them kindly to announce a complete rethink of their strategic involvement on the Libyan Internal Affairs, and ”restart the uprising”, Guerrilla in character, and at the same time, prepare yourselves, psychologically and physically for the brutal terror that you will encounter from the enemy, Mr. Gaddaffi.

If this happens today, not thinkable, I will be the first on the plane to Benghazi, I promise.

Thank You.

SS.

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About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications

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