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On Libya: The Reality (Gaddaffi-In-Command) vs The Deceptive Lie (The ”Rebels”-In-Charge)

Recently, there seems to be a new drive for a revived ”psychological’ morale injection, via PR, Propaganda, Media Management etc, within the Anglo-French Aggressive Forces Quarters, to boost the images of the ‘rebels’-in-charge, and well-managed, one might say, to the point, one can not turn a newspaper page, or have a look at the screens without missing the incredible new ‘offence’, or to use the media spin-word, ‘surge’, against the incumbent regime of Gaddaffi.

In short, it is seems things are finally happening for the Libyan ‘Caucasian Rebels’. But are these facts, reality or deceptive lie, to boost morale? Lets explore.

If we base our analysis on what we see and hear, from the secondary sources, the western media, thus, no doubt, we will be among the many ‘won-over’, who believe are turning the tide in Libya against the Gaddaffi Regime. However, if we are among the few knowledgeable-observers and experienced professionals, we would be in a position to really see the naked-truth under the veil of deception; no one is going anywhere, and Gaddaffi is in control and in command of the initiative and direction of the western-created local conflict.

Lets get back to our last posts counsellor on wars, Herr Von Clausewitz. He tells us of the two variables (for many others, variables, see the post, ”In Conversation with Clausewitz”) of significance upon the present conduct of operations by Gaddaffi Forces, and for our discursive preoccupation here;

1. Defence is the Stronger form of Combat
2. supporting above, the attackers’ inherent weakness, based on the Culmination Point.

What does this mean?

It means, as we have already stated for sometime now, that Gaddaffi has always placed his strategic forces on the strategic defence, but not just waiting and parrying (as those familiar with the teachings of Clausewitz will understand the statement), but rather also counter-attacking at tactical engagements; that, utilising tactical offence whenever an opportunity is placed on him. It is the use of this stronger form of combat, defence, and the ability to fall-back deeper and deeper on his own superior interior lines, and bases of operations, and at the same time, dictating the activities of the engagements, that will in the end, exhaust, as it has been throughout these five months or so of aggression by the Anglo-French Forces (under the NATO disguise), and the so-called ”Rebels”.

In other words, if, as to how I see the unfolding of the events in front of me here, with my little rudimentary map on Libya, as Gaddaffi keeps to his dominant strategic doctrine of exhaustion/protraction, initiative, in-depth defences, stronger interior lines, good psychological moral and spirit, and let the aggressive forces beat their heads against the walls of steel, he;

(a) can bring the culmination point sooner or later, and strike the aggressors with a major successful engagement (the Great Battle), where will this be? I reckon not in Tripoli, but rather within the depths of the south-eastern mountains and desert sands of Libya.

(b) has no strategic reasons to hold on to Tripoli and can let go of this, much prized objective, with no trouble, as along as he has his force intact and concentrated, and under his command.

(c) if Tripoli is sacrificed, we will see the new metamorphis on the character of the conflict, as the ”rebels”, as stated previously, seek to claim legitimacy of governing Libya, Gaddaffi and his ”bands of new rebels” will create a new guerrilla warfare against the western ‘backed puppets of Tripoli’; his most natural state (as a revolutionary).

Thus, to sum up.

The hype is a big lie, and Gaddaffi is actually in command of events, and I still have 4k bet on him winning the conflict in the end; he is a shrewd tactician and a brilliant military strategist, he knows when to give in, when to hold to.

Thank You.


1. http://www.economist.com/node/18958461

2. http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/07/debt-crisis%20

3. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/98cdfe86-abae-11e0-8a64-00144feabdc0.html

4. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2015563/Mandelson-giddy-Steve-Hilton-course-Robert-Peston–How-Elizabeth-Murdoch-Matthew-Freud-hosted-decadent-hurrah-Chipping-Norton-set.html

5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jul/16/ed-miliband-rupert-murdoch-phone-hacking

6. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jul/16/rupert-murdoch-ed-miliband-phone-hacking


About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications


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