Well, Ladies and Gentlemen.
First and foremost, as always, I am obliged, and of gratitude for the many communications and exchanges that I have been receiving in relations to my ‘product’, the Anthological Series (sounds like Star Wars, or is Star Trek, Anyway) based on the Anthropological Studies of The Contemporary Middle Eastern Crisis.
Secondly, today, I would like to have a look at the mesmerising enquiry of ‘What Next?’, for the region, for the politics, for the security and order, for the society, for the west, and for the rest of the global relations. My argument here is based entirely on that bedevilled practise of probabilities, hypothetical stands together mixed with the evils of historicism (that relying on history for answers and behavioural patterns).
DECIPHERING THE MIDDLE EASTERN CODE
Phase One: We are observing this taking place right about now. The Chaos, with so many participants and players, from inside and outside, that the entire efforts to decipher what next has no hope other than that based on three mentioned approaches above.
The Events are fluctuating and unstable, one day, one hour, one minute, predictable and comforting, the other they turn into complexities that only perverted-mathematicians will get a kick out of its chaos. One point for sure is that, the events observable indicates no hope for the monarchs.
Let examine this hypothesis of Monarchial Fates; Muslims throughout their traditions, teachings, civilisations and religious beliefs have had no love for the monarchies, and see the very concept and practise as ‘blasphemy’, a challenge to the authority and cosmic order of Allah’s Sole supremacy. They have built this more recently, that after the first world war, and the slow ending of the colonial powers, with the hatred of ‘dictated practise’ of monarchial powers by the old western masters (seen as puppeteers). And with the advent of Nationalism and Revolutionarism, new mix came into play and theat which is being cooked for generations seems to be taking long, but end result, is the expected riddance of these hated figures, and today, the realities seems more nearer and more attainable (based on their own little modelling on SWOT crap, and SMART Analysis).
POINT OF OBSERVATION FROM PHASE ONE: THE COMING END FOR THE MONARCHIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST
This can be ‘delayed’ a little bit more by western states closed-door interference and control of events but by 2020, I predict based on my analysis, that Middle East will be based on Popular Democracy (of close to Anarchism, or Hobbes State of Nature, based around the misconception of Republican Democratic States, that foreign concept for the Islamic Societies and Politics).
So, what are we to expect of the next phase? Here is my take.
Phase Two: The Region on the whole, will fall into a state of total chaos, of civil wars, and challenges for power between various players, minus systematic murderous rampage seen in Algeria, post Independence or even Afghanistan post-Soviet withdrawal, or Somalia (the Historicism aspects), etc., but it will mirror, the Iraq, Syria, Iran, Egypt of the 1970s Baathist Revolutions, where a ‘New Political Elite’, with shared ”Pan-Islamism” goals, will come into existence, and some of these new elites, are our dreaded ”extremists”, who will actually be at centre of leadership (or as management theories refer to, the strategic leaders, and the role of the centre).
So, with these new elites in power, and initial chaos settled, phase three will come into play.
Phase Three: I will leave it here…………..