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Somalia-ification of Libya: Three Scenarios & End-Effects (Intelligence Estimate) FREE!


In this article, I will attempt to present in an ‘intelligence requirement standards’ a report or estimate, on how the Libya Crisis has created a three scenarios for the state and outside observers, and their end-by-products.

Intelligence Analysts spend the greater part of their training on the ”presentation” training, more than the analytical trade-crafts of the business; how to write, present and to sell to their customers the intelligence products, in order to secure bigger budgets, or role, or so forth. I have never been good in this, nor an enthusiast of ”structured” ways of doing things, be warned this does not mean I am confessing to have been, or present as, been a member of an intelligence community, it just means I am an Intelligence Enthusiast. Anyway let start, briefly looking at the essential parts and required structures and sizes of these, if written, as we intend to have;

1. The executive summary; which needs to be of a third-size of an A4 page, covering the entire document, and significantly, emphasis the recommendations (the ABC-of-the-sale: Always Be Closing Sale).

2. The Main Body: this can be structured in various ways, which I will not go into at the present, but my structure will be based on the simple standard ”student’s essays” writing. Here the essence, is the meaty details, graphs, finances which are dealt with. but still needs to be not more than two-side of an A4 page. (The laziness of customers or in-patience).

3. The Sum Up: Here they close it buy repeating ”the sale” and the ”benefit for customer”.

Now, to our REPORT:

INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON LIBYA: SCENARIOS, PROBABILITIES AND EFFECTS

The Executive Summary:

The Libyan Affairs can be seen and understood through three probable hypothesis (The Intelligence Community live by this, based on the over-rated ACH Approach, Alternative Competing Hypotheses) and their probable outcomes, and effects on the state, the international community and the western states involved (The Anglo-Franco Libyan Occupation Forces). This paper will discuss in brief these probabilities and hypotheses and their probable effects on all involved.

The Main Body: Discussing Libya and the Aftermath

The first Hypothesis: Gaddaffi still in power after all activities of the past months.

(This section might open with a big graphics, in terms of table of ACH, requires special software, and so forth)

Such a Scenario presents a stable Libya, with strong centralised rule by the Gaddaffi family, and a complete repression of any signs of rebellious-traits. The regions and cities associated with the rebellion will be ‘cleansed” and ”indoctrinated” into the revolutionary ethos of Gaddaffi-Libya, and so forth. The end effect for International Community, is a stable regional security and order, with internal repression, initially, as for the Western Key Players, British and French, the loss of a key role and relationship with Libyan state, that has more commanding power in and around the continent of Africa and her Affairs.

In short, the latter, the West, will be the Losers of this scenario.

Scenario Two: the rebels succeed in ousting the Gaddaffi regime from the power,
THE PRESENT SYSTEM (OR APPEARED TO BE)

the International Community will be faced with a regional insecurity and disorder, a new failed state on per with Somalia. Where the results will be short-lived, as the circle of struggle will see the ousted power becoming the new rebels, and the rebels becoming the weak ruling power, and then this will change hands again and so forth. The advantage for the Key Western Powers involved, will be an open door for ”behind doors policy of occupation”, where they will justify the ”calls by the rebels new ruling power to send in they ground forces to protect and secure order and security for the people, and help with the nation-building projects”.

Thus, In short, The Anglo-French initial strategic goal for Libya will be achieved as desired.

However, Scenario Two has a sub-end, that of a New-Blow-back problem. As the old Islamist veterans closely affiliated to the Al-Qaida might challenge and takeover the reigns of power, and create a safe-heaven for terrorism.

Scenario Three: Is a political compromise

agreeing on a ‘peaceful reconciliation’ and exchange of powers, this might prove to be beneficial in the longer term for the International Community, Regional Stability and for the Anglo-French Libyan Occupation Forces, and we (the intelligence producers of such a draft) recommend this approach to our clients. However, this approach will require extensive political and economic aid and commitment in the rebuilding of Libya, or it might doom the state back into the ”state of chaos’.

To Sum Up:

As we have covered the three scenarios/probabilities and their impact on all those involved, and the degree of positive and negative effect these might have on the state, the international and regional security, order and stability and the UK-France Commercial and Neo-Colonial Interests, we do recommend the third option, but open the decisions for final-choice to our clients.

Thank you.

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About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications

Discussion

6 thoughts on “Somalia-ification of Libya: Three Scenarios & End-Effects (Intelligence Estimate) FREE!

  1. There is a fourth scenario, that Libya becomes like it’s neighbors Tunisia and Egypt, exisiting without direct intervention of the West, yet not falling into a failed state like Somalia. Since this piece is more of an explanation of how an intelligence analysis would be written rather than a full-blown analysis, I have to rate it only a “3”. If it is revised to both be more of an example than an explanation and to include the fourth scenario (however unlikely you may view it), then I might revise my rating upward.

    Posted by David Navarre | August 23, 2011, 2:20 pm
    • You are a simple man, I admire that.

      Unaffected and uncorrupted by the evils of the world, seemingly, from reading your comment above, Tunisia and Egypt without western intervention, hahaha, good one, I needed a laughter for the day.

      Sorry, again, only three options as stated.

      Thanks for visiting and comment, anyway.

      Posted by s.s.salem: Independent specialist | August 23, 2011, 4:52 pm
  2. So, you’re not even going to address the possibility that Libya will not become another Somalia without keeping Gaddafi in power? That seems a rather incomplete analysis, as you could include it and says that it is highly unlikely in your opinion. I would think it prudent to include all realistic scenarios. You might look fairly foolish if you refuse to address it and it actually happens. Nonetheless, this is your product, so you may do as you please.

    Posted by David Navarre | August 23, 2011, 5:40 pm
    • Hi, David.

      I like when I find someone with a gut to disagree with me, most tend to be yes-men, I thank you, sincerely for this.

      In terms of Libya not being a Somalia, I believe I agree, and say so on I think option something, anyway it is one of the options, it does not mean it will be a failed state completely but rather it will never have peace again, it will be open to many factions vying for powers, tribal-driven, and many opportunists behind and outside the borders and so forth.

      You will see, Libya will never be the same again, and us, the west, we will, yes, reap the benefits, commercially, for the shorter time, but strategically we will loss big time, this warning has been presented to key top decision makers for years, hence, toleration of Gaddaffi as a unifying and peacemaker, sort, guy. The broker, as we use to call him.

      Anyway, good points, but we presented actually over eighteen options, the three above, mentioned in my article, these are sort of ‘branches of thoughts’, each with over 6 or so sub-hypothetical-branches attached to it. You, my dear friend, if I may, tend to be ‘quantitative’, or rather to be more perfect in reference ‘scientific’, you want the numbers, the data, hence , always seems to be missing my points, as I will never provide ‘data’ in open platforms.

      But you are a brilliant guy, thanks for challenges.

      Posted by s.s.salem: Independent specialist | August 23, 2011, 6:44 pm
  3. I would agree that Libya is unlikely to be the same, but disagree about the likely outcome. Whatever happens is certain to be messy as Gaddafi (like Saddam and many other tyrants) made sure to keep many factions vying against each other over his decades in power.

    He is a masterful politician and I think that if he survives, it will be due to his political maneuverings, not due to his imagined military prowess. The trouble is, if his “loyal” followers sense that he will lose, they will save their own skins.

    To say that Gaddafi is the indispensable man, without whom Libya becomes like Somalia ignores a quote from DeGaulle – “The cemeteries of the world are full of indispensable men.”

    I’m not asking for scientific data. You make wild assertions for which you provide no support. Without any support, your assertions are worthless.

    Posted by David Navarre | August 23, 2011, 8:54 pm

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