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intel, security


My intelligence analysis seems to bring forth a picture that this upcoming Afghan Summer is going to be the most fiercest and deadliest to date in the history of Western forces in Afghanistan.

Indication seems to show that our absence at the strategic mind and approach to the local situation has created an excellent strategic environment for the ‘strategic guerilla’ of Talibans, their natural instinct. In other words, by denying and pushing them out of geographical enclaves, that originally served, perfectly for us, as ”containment zones”, and significantly, Identifiable containment zones of interests, we have dispersed the enemy into the shadows of the mighty mountains of Afghanistan, the same errors performed by the Russians in the 1970-80s; having forced out the insurgent of the time into the embrace of the great mountains, they were left blind and vulnerable.

My Predictions (With Heavy Heart): Talibans will command great tactical advantages and strategic benefits from the operations to come. Already our extensive intoxication in the use of drones have robbed us of the key factor in the war on terror, and Afghan War, the hearts and minds/psychological value, we were already building admirable. This might have a positive effect for the Talibans in the recruitment, new levels of indoctrination, local support, their own hearts and minds (its a battle of its own, with counter actions), and even new strategic (the most dangerous) re-building for long time sustainment; for business lingua; we seemed to be losing our local competitive advantage (with no chance of sustainable growth in sight), and Talibans are benefiting from these from the new start-up position.

May the Gods Of Wars, protect the Brave Souls to Fall,
For what is to come, is not their fault,
We Shall Forever, Remember Their Toils,
For Every Remembrance Day, We Shall Halt.

S. S. Salem. ”Coming Red Summer” [2011]


About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications


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