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ANALYSIS ON THE US POLITICS: OBAMA & THE DEMOCARTS; PALIN, THE TEA PARTY & THE REPUBLICANS AND THE 2012 ELECTIONS.


Well, 2012 is almost here with us, and for the US it is another decision time. The question is who is going to claim that glorious powerful prize as the new president of the United States for the next four years.

At the present, all the popular indicators seems inclined towards Mr. Obama retaining the seat as the president of US, and the Republicans, retaining the majority in the both houses, of the representatives and the senate (the Congress); a sort of balance of power approach for the diplomatic and savvy American Voter.

True, the popular Opinion has some strong evidence in support of it’s argument, however, my opinion is rather different, (I know, not surprising, haha). Though I accept this popular viewpoint, I fear it rest on a very fragile and simplified theory or argument, and very narrow observational facts. Though Mr. Obama does have a chance to be re-elected, unlike previous by-gone elections, this one can really be decided by a ‘rejuvenated’ and united Republican party, rather, awaiting the ‘self-screw-up’ of the incumbent candidate and his/her party; this latter point has been the foundation of analytical support, and argument, that ”it is the party or candidate in government that loses their own votes with the public and not the action or reaction of the opposition”; a sort of military axiom, the war is won or lost by the opposition.

Why I argue so?

OBAMA & THE DEMOCRATS:

Well, Obama came in with full energy of a youth, and idealism, and plenty of oratorical promises and behind opportunistic environment of economic crisis, militarism protest, neo-con’s unpopularity and the loss of the American stand in the International Arena, and many other very helpful issues for the Democrats but not the Republicans. However, after for years, Mr. Obama’s youthness is gone, he seems to be ageing more rapidly then most, and just like our new young child-leaders, he seems unable to rise to challenge and expectation of the office of national leader. He is worn out, lost in translation, literally, as his oratorical skills seems to be have abandoned him, and the pressures are piling up, he is also, as the general Democrats seemed at lost with the general national/public feeling. And so many other issues and facts, but these we will not go into at the present, other than to measure, perhaps the most critical of these, he has, as the Democrats, in general, done nothing different or of any interest for the American public and the nation (though, credit should be handed for his ‘rehabilitation’ of American nation within the international diplomacy and affairs).

Now, lets turn to the Republicans.

THE DIVIDED PARTY: PALIN, TEA PARTY AND THE HOPE

My argument here is simply that, there is a chance for the return to power for the republican party, taking both the presidency and the congress, respectively. However, to reach this hard-target, they need to rejuvenate the party, first, and present, that before going, to the public, a united front, under a real strong candidate, not popular, like Miss. Palin, or that witchcraft-candidate of the tea party, I keep forgetting her name, can not be a good sign for the her chance for the nomination, if a person of my position, ”in the know”, ”does not know or remember” then how can the greater less-informed public really be expected to vote for such ‘known unknown” (could not resist it).

Miss. Or Mrs. Palin, she is not a popular leadership material, she is a natural business woman not a politician. She can never be elected, whatever spin and spin, or efforts are made to turn her image, she has already turnished her ‘public-image’ into ‘a circus-celebrity’ (and for the public most of these class, celebrities, they are good only for entertaining not for any other use). So she is a lost cause, so is that witch-lady. Now we come to real politician options and it is here that, if the republican party get it right, they will get it right at the elections too.

Final word; next year this time, is when one can start to form a picture of the next president of US.

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About s.s.salim: Geopolitical Analyst

Political & Strategy Defence & Security Intelligence & Communications

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